This study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain.

This report is the result of a World Bank mission that visited Paraguay in June 2013 at the request of the Government of Paraguay. The mission’s objective was to identify, quantify, and prioritize agriculture risks that determine the volatility of agriculture gross domestic product (GDP), based on a methodology to assess sector risks developed by the World Bank. The methodology stipulates a two-phase process.

This work summarizes background papers prepared for the World Bank Group with significant input from government counterparts and other development partners. It takes stock of major recent developments and argues that a lot has been achieved in the last decade in terms of production of commodities for export and food consumption, with favorable impact on rural poverty reduction. It also argues that the two factors driving the recent agricultural performance, namely favorable international prices and expansion of the agricultural frontier, have reached their limits.

A new generation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) is finding a small foothold among poor, small-scale farmers in developing countries. Even so, many barriers still prevent poor rural people from accessing, using, and benefiting from new ICT tools and platforms, and those barriers are arguably higher for rural women. The relationship between gender and agriculture has been studied intensively over the years, and many agricultural interventions now include gender as a crosscutting issue or mainstream gender throughout their operations.

This report contains powerful stories, supported by data, of how World Bank Group projects have affected and transformed lives across East Asia and Pacific. There are also photographs that put a face on development statistics. The East Asia and Pacific region is home to more than two billion people. They live in more than 20 different countries; they speak more than 3,000 languages; they are farmers and fishermen, business men and women, students, workers, nomadic herders, all showing that a little can go a long way.

This is the first investment climate assessment (ICA) for Myanmar. The main objectives of this ICA are to: (i) provide an up-to-date and fact-based analysis of the business environment for the government and other stakeholders in Myanmar to help prioritize and contextualize the reform agenda, and (ii) to offer a baseline for future assessments of progress in terms of the investment climate reform agenda. As requested by the government, the Myanmar ICA will directly support the ongoing reform program.

Mali is a vast, land-locked country in West Africa with a population of approximately 14.9 million, and a GDP per capita of USD480. The economy is largely rural, with over two-thirds of the population living off agriculture, notably cotton. Gold is the country’s largest export, though production has been declining and the industry faces an uncertain future as proven reserves are limited. The service sector, which represents 40 percent of GDP, is dominated by trade and commerce. Mali’s dependence on crops and gold makes it vulnerable to terms of trade shocks.

Agriculture remains fundamental for Nicaragua from both a macroeconomic and social view. It is the largest sector of the Nicaraguan economy, and it remains the single biggest employer with around 30 percent of the labor force and including processed foods, like meat and sugar, agriculture accounts for around 40 percent of total exports value. Nicaragua appears to be gradually losing competitive edge of some of its key agricultural exports within the most important export markets.

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa’s frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country’s food security.

This report is comprised of two volumes: (i) volume one: risk assessment; and (ii) volume two: risk management strategy. Volume one continues with chapter one, which characterizes the recent performance of the agriculture sector, including agro-climatic and market conditions. It also identifies the productive systems used for this analysis. Chapter two describes the main risks in the agricultural sector, capturing market, production, and enabling environment risks along the value chains involved in the selected productive system typologies.