Mali is a vast, land-locked country in West Africa with a population of approximately 14.9 million, and a GDP per capita of USD480. The economy is largely rural, with over two-thirds of the population living off agriculture, notably cotton. Gold is the country’s largest export, though production has been declining and the industry faces an uncertain future as proven reserves are limited. The service sector, which represents 40 percent of GDP, is dominated by trade and commerce. Mali’s dependence on crops and gold makes it vulnerable to terms of trade shocks.

Agriculture remains fundamental for Nicaragua from both a macroeconomic and social view. It is the largest sector of the Nicaraguan economy, and it remains the single biggest employer with around 30 percent of the labor force and including processed foods, like meat and sugar, agriculture accounts for around 40 percent of total exports value. Nicaragua appears to be gradually losing competitive edge of some of its key agricultural exports within the most important export markets.

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa’s frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country’s food security.

This report is comprised of two volumes: (i) volume one: risk assessment; and (ii) volume two: risk management strategy. Volume one continues with chapter one, which characterizes the recent performance of the agriculture sector, including agro-climatic and market conditions. It also identifies the productive systems used for this analysis. Chapter two describes the main risks in the agricultural sector, capturing market, production, and enabling environment risks along the value chains involved in the selected productive system typologies.

The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two).

Botswana has been one of the worlds fastest growing economies over the past 50 years, allowing the country to move from being among the poorest to upper middle income status - this has had the effect of pulling the majority of the population out of poverty. While Botswana is rightly praised for its management of resource wealth, it is apparent that the high levels of investment by government (in health, education, and infrastructure) are not delivering quality outcomes, making it increasingly difficult to meet the objectives of growth, diversification, and poverty elimination.

The working paper presents a new toolkit for the implementation of a participatory vulnerability assessment (PVA) in rural localities, by introducing the methodology, as well as the findings, from a pilot study in Sokoine (Zepisa, Hombolo Ward) in Tanzania. It is based on a participatory methodological approach and follows a multidimensional conceptualisation of social vulnerability to climate change.

The provision of basic market information is a service that aims to increase the efficiency of agricultural markets and contribute towards overcoming basic issues of market failure based on asymmetrical access to information. However, debate on the need for long-term support to a market information system (MIS) continues. A quantitative and qualitative survey was undertaken to provide a measure of accessibility, usefulness and utility of the current MIS, and to access how this type of service may be financed and improved in the future. 

This paper describes the learning selection approach to enabling innovation that capitalizes on the complexity of social systems at different scales of analysis. The first part of the paper describes the approach and how it can be used to guide the early stages of setting up a “grassroots” innovation process. The second part of the paper looks at how the learn selection model can be used “top-down” to guide research investments to trigger large-scale systemic change.

This paper (Part I) present a case study of work conducted by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) to adapt network mapping techniques to a rural and developing country context. It reports on work in Colombia to develop a prototype network diagnosis tool for use by service providers who work to strengthen small rural groups. It is complemented by a further paper in this issue by Louise Clark (Part II) which presents work to develop a network diagnosis tool for stakeholders involved in agricultural supply chains in Bolivia.